Bulgaria is grappling with a profound demographic crisis, with the country’s population decreasing by approximately 2.5 million since the early 1990s.
The decline, driven by low birth rates, high mortality, and significant emigration, poses serious economic and social challenges, as detailed in a recent study by the Council for Economic Analysis under the Council of Ministers.
Former Minister of Labor and Social Policy Kristina Hristova has highlighted the urgency of addressing the issue, emphasizing that the demographic crisis should be a top priority for Bulgaria and the European Union.
According to Hristova, the country is suffering from three critical negative trends: a declining birth rate, an aging population, and high levels of emigration.
These factors not only reduce the overall population but also shrink the available workforce, which she identified as one of the most severe consequences of the demographic situation.
“Bulgaria’s demographic crisis is not just a future concern; it is already impacting our economic potential and labor market,” Hristova stated. “If we don’t prioritize this issue, we risk a severe shortage of skilled workers and a decline in economic productivity.”
Emigration has been a persistent problem, particularly during the period from 2012 to 2019, when many Bulgarians left the country in search of better economic opportunities abroad.
The resulting labor shortages have left industries struggling to fill positions, even as Bulgaria experiences historically low unemployment rates.
The country’s aging population has further exacerbated the situation, with a growing number of retirees and a dwindling number of working-age individuals.
Associate Professor Kosto Stoychev from Sofia University has echoed concerns about Bulgaria’s demographic trajectory, predicting that the country will undergo a significant demographic transition over the next 10 to 15 years.
“We are at a crossroads,” Stoychev said. “Before Bulgaria reaches a new stable state, we will face significant challenges due to the ongoing population decline.”
Stoychev pointed out that Bulgaria’s current demographic situation hinders its ability to take advantage of broader European trends, such as the relocation of industries and the restructuring of the EU’s industrial policy.
Despite efforts to attract new investments, the country struggles with insufficient economic capacity to support rapid industrial growth due to a lack of available labor.
To address these issues, Stoychev has suggested the introduction of a “green card” system to attract highly skilled professionals from other countries.
He believes such a measure could help alleviate some of the labor shortages and improve Bulgaria’s long-term demographic outlook.
However, he cautioned that simply offering financial incentives is unlikely to significantly increase the birth rate, as the root causes of the demographic decline are complex and multifaceted.
While some government policies have aimed at encouraging families to have more children, the low birth rate remains a significant hurdle.
Experts suggest that a combination of social, economic, and immigration reforms will be necessary to reverse the negative trends and stabilize Bulgaria’s population.
As the country seeks solutions to its demographic crisis, Hristova and Stoychev agree that the issue requires comprehensive and coordinated efforts at both the national and European levels.
Without significant intervention, Bulgaria risks facing a long-term demographic and economic downturn that could have lasting consequences for future generations.