In a provocative interview with the Russian newspaper Kommersant, Sergey Karaganov, a prominent Russian political scientist and advisor with close ties to Kremlin circles, has called for Russia to rethink its nuclear policy and consider using nuclear weapons against NATO member states that support Ukraine.
Known for his hawkish stance, Karaganov’s suggestions come amid a protracted conflict in Ukraine, where Russian forces have faced numerous setbacks. His remarks, though not official policy, are seen as reflective of the more extreme views circulating within Russia’s strategic community.
A Call for Nuclear Escalation
Karaganov’s controversial proposal centers on a shift in Russia’s nuclear doctrine, which currently limits the use of nuclear weapons to retaliation in the event of a nuclear attack or in response to an existential threat.
Karaganov argues that this approach is outdated and inadequate in the face of growing Western support for Ukraine, which includes military aid, intelligence sharing, and economic sanctions aimed at weakening Russia’s geopolitical standing.
In his interview, Karaganov called for Russia to signal its willingness to use nuclear weapons in a “limited strike” on NATO territories, suggesting that such an action would force the West to reconsider its support for Ukraine without triggering a full-scale nuclear war.
He advocated for a pre-emptive strike as a means of deterrence, warning that failing to take such drastic action could lead to Russia’s eventual collapse.
“The current doctrine is dangerous because it is based on the idea of retaliation only when nuclear weapons are used against us or when our very existence is at stake,” Karaganov stated.
“This is an ineffective and dangerous approach in the modern world. We must be prepared to use nuclear weapons if we are to prevent our own destruction.”
A New Strategic Posture
Karaganov’s remarks come as Russia grapples with the fallout from its ongoing war in Ukraine, now in its second year. Russian forces have faced mounting casualties, a strained economy, and growing international isolation.
While Moscow has threatened nuclear escalation in the past, particularly through veiled threats made by President Vladimir Putin, Karaganov’s comments represent a more explicit call for nuclear first-use as a tactical strategy.
According to Karaganov, Russia should adopt a policy that allows for nuclear strikes not just in response to a nuclear attack, but also to counter major conventional threats, such as an attack on Russian territory by NATO forces or Western-backed Ukrainian troops.
He argued that a show of force—potentially involving the use of low-yield tactical nuclear weapons—would serve to “sober up” adversaries and prevent further escalation.
“All nuclear powers have plans for calibrated nuclear use,” Karaganov said, referring to doctrines that allow for controlled, limited nuclear strikes.
“We must understand that demonstrating our willingness to use these weapons is essential to safeguarding our nation. The West must realize that it is playing a dangerous game, and our message should be clear: we are ready to escalate if necessary.”
Reactions and Implications
Karaganov’s radical proposals have raised alarms among Western security experts, who view his comments as indicative of the growing influence of hardline elements within Russia’s political and military establishment.
While his suggestions do not reflect official Russian policy, Karaganov’s position as an influential figure within Russia’s foreign policy discourse means that his words are closely monitored by analysts both in Russia and abroad.
“Karaganov’s rhetoric reflects the more extreme and hawkish factions within the Kremlin,” said a Western diplomat familiar with Russian affairs.
“While President Putin has so far maintained a more restrained public posture regarding nuclear threats, the fact that such ideas are being floated at all is a sign of how serious the situation has become. The risk of miscalculation is growing.”
Some analysts believe that Karaganov’s comments are intended to signal to the West that Russia is willing to escalate further if it feels cornered in Ukraine.
By proposing a limited nuclear strike, Karaganov may be trying to pressure NATO countries into rethinking their support for Kyiv, without crossing the threshold into global nuclear conflict.
However, other experts warn that even the suggestion of a limited nuclear strike could have catastrophic consequences, both for Russia and the world.
“The idea that you can control the use of nuclear weapons and prevent escalation is highly questionable,” said a senior defense analyst. “Once you break the nuclear taboo, all bets are off. It’s a dangerous and reckless gamble.”
Diverging Views in Russia
Karaganov’s call for a nuclear posture shift highlights the growing tensions within Russia’s strategic community. While some figures, like Karaganov, advocate for a more assertive and aggressive stance, others within the Kremlin appear to favor a more cautious approach.
President Putin, while frequently making veiled threats about Russia’s nuclear arsenal, has thus far refrained from explicitly endorsing first-use policies in the current conflict.
“Putin has always been a master of ambiguity when it comes to nuclear threats,” noted an expert on Russian politics. “He prefers to keep the West guessing without committing to specific actions.
Karaganov’s comments, on the other hand, are much more direct and represent a departure from that ambiguity. It remains to be seen whether this is part of a coordinated strategy or simply a sign of diverging views within the Kremlin.”
Despite Karaganov’s calls for nuclear escalation, there is little evidence that Moscow is preparing to implement such a strategy. Western intelligence agencies have not reported any significant changes in Russia’s nuclear posture, though the potential for miscalculation remains a concern.
The Global Risk
The debate over nuclear weapons use in Russia is occurring at a time when global tensions are running high, with the war in Ukraine showing no signs of resolution.
The West’s continued support for Ukraine, coupled with economic sanctions against Russia, has deepened the geopolitical divide between Moscow and the NATO alliance.
Karaganov’s remarks, while unlikely to be immediately acted upon, serve as a reminder of the risks inherent in the current standoff. The use of nuclear weapons, even on a limited scale, would mark a dramatic and dangerous escalation, with consequences that could spiral out of control.
In his interview, Karaganov dismissed concerns about the risk of full-scale nuclear war, arguing that the idea that any use of nuclear weapons would lead to global Armageddon is flawed.
“This is a myth,” he said. “We must think strategically and not be paralyzed by fear. The goal is not to provoke a nuclear war, but to prevent it by showing that we are serious.”
Whether Karaganov’s proposals will gain traction within Russia’s leadership remains to be seen. However, his comments have undoubtedly added to the growing unease in Western capitals, where policymakers are grappling with how to respond to an increasingly unpredictable Russia.