Sofia, Bulgaria – As geopolitical tensions in the Middle East threaten to escalate, fears have arisen over the potential impact on global oil prices.
However, Svetoslav Benchev, chairman of the Bulgarian Oil and Gas Association (BOGA), expressed optimism that fuel prices in Bulgaria would remain relatively stable.
Benchev shared his outlook during a conference on “Energy Transition in Transport,” held to commemorate BOGA’s 25th anniversary.
During the event, Benchev acknowledged the uncertainty surrounding the current situation, particularly regarding key oil producers like Iran, but remained hopeful that prices would not spike significantly.
“I believe this will not happen, and oil prices will stay around the current level of about 75 dollars per barrel,” Benchev stated. “This means that fuel prices at our gas stations will likely remain similar to what we see now, with a possible increase of a few cents.”
Global Economy and Oil Market Resilience
Benchev pointed to several factors that could help contain price increases despite the potential risk of supply disruptions. He stressed the current weakness in the global economy, which could curb demand and counterbalance upward pressure on prices.
According to Benchev, the sluggish state of global markets is likely to dampen the overall impact of the Middle East conflict on oil prices. The oil expert also noted the growing role of the United States in mitigating global price volatility.
Benchev pointed to the country’s release of oil from its strategic reserves and the noticeable recovery of shale oil production as key actions helping to stabilize global oil supplies.
“These measures are being taken to prevent significant price hikes, especially as the US prepares for its presidential elections next year,” Benchev explained.
Election Cycle’s Role in Oil Price Stability
According to Benchev, the upcoming 2024 US presidential election will play a significant role in determining the trajectory of oil prices in the coming months.
He suggested that significant price increases are unlikely to occur before the election, as the US administration seeks to avoid economic disruptions that could sway voters.
The release of oil reserves, combined with the ramping up of shale oil production, demonstrates the US government’s commitment to maintaining price stability during a critical political period.
Benchev emphasized that these factors, along with strategic global efforts, would likely help keep oil prices at manageable levels, minimizing the risk of sudden fuel price surges in Bulgaria and other parts of the world.
Hope for Stability in an Uncertain Time
Benchev’s comments offered a note of optimism during a time of heightened concern about global energy markets.
While acknowledging that the situation in the Middle East remains volatile and unpredictable, he expressed confidence that Bulgaria’s fuel prices will not be drastically affected in the near future.
“What we see now is a steady balance in the market,” Benchev said. “As long as this balance is maintained, we can expect fuel prices to remain close to their current levels.”
Despite the uncertainties ahead, Benchev’s outlook suggests that Bulgaria’s fuel consumers can breathe a sigh of relief, at least for the moment, as industry leaders and global efforts work to ensure stability in oil markets.