The European Union’s car market exhibited a modest recovery in October, with new vehicle registrations rising 1.1% year-on-year to 866,397 units.
The rebound follows two consecutive months of decline and reflects diverging trends across major European markets.
Spain and Germany drove the overall growth, while France and Italy recorded significant declines, according to data from the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association (ACEA).
Meanwhile, Bulgaria’s car market posted stronger-than-average growth, continuing its trajectory as a rising star in the EU automotive landscape.
EU Market Overview: A Mixed Bag of Gains and Losses
The 1.1% uptick in October registrations reflects a nuanced picture across the EU. Spain recorded the highest growth among major markets, with new car sales climbing 7.2%.
Germany followed closely with a 6% increase, maintaining its position as Europe’s largest car market. However, these gains were offset by sharp declines in France and Italy, where registrations fell 11.1% and 9.1%, respectively.
The mixed results highlight the varying economic conditions and consumer preferences across the bloc. Persistent inflationary pressures and high borrowing costs continue to dampen demand in some regions, particularly in southern Europe.
In contrast, relatively stable economic conditions in countries like Germany and Spain have supported a recovery in car sales.
Bulgaria: A Regional Outlier
Bulgaria outperformed the EU average, with new car registrations rising 3.0% in October to 3,880 units. This growth comes amid broader economic resilience in the country, where improving household incomes and increasing consumer confidence have bolstered demand for vehicles.
Bulgaria’s trends, however, deviate notably from the EU’s overall pattern. While gasoline-powered car sales across the EU fell by 6.8%, Bulgaria experienced a comparatively modest 5.0% decline, with 2,779 units sold.
Diesel car registrations surged by 40.2% to 683 units, bucking the EU-wide trend of steep declines.
Hybrid vehicles also saw significant growth in Bulgaria, with registrations up 18.8% to 95 units. On the other hand, electric vehicle (EV) sales dropped by 10.8%, and plug-in hybrids fell by 18.9%.
Year-to-date figures reveal a more comprehensive view of Bulgaria’s thriving automotive market. Between January and October 2024, registrations in Bulgaria grew by an impressive 16.5% to 36,263 units, far outpacing the EU’s overall growth of 0.7%.
Hybrids and EVs Lead the Way
October marked a turning point for alternative fuel vehicles in the EU, as hybrids and electric cars continued to gain market share. Hybrid vehicles accounted for 33.3% of the market, surpassing gasoline-powered cars for the second consecutive month.
Registrations of hybrids surged 17.5% year-on-year to 288,160 units, reflecting growing consumer interest in fuel-efficient and environmentally friendly options.
Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) also made strides, albeit at a slower pace. BEV registrations rose 2.4% in October, achieving a market share of 14.4%.
However, year-to-date sales of BEVs have declined by 4.9%, largely due to a 26.6% slump in Germany, which has traditionally been a stronghold for EVs.
The German decline is attributed to reduced government subsidies and supply chain challenges, which have impacted production and delivery timelines.
In contrast, the EU’s gasoline and diesel segments continued their downward trajectory. Gasoline car registrations fell 6.8% year-on-year, reducing their market share to 30.8%, down from 33.4% in October 2023.
Diesel sales plummeted by 7.6%, leaving them with just a 10.9% share of the market. Year-to-date diesel registrations have fallen 10.8% to 1.087 million units, as stricter emissions regulations and consumer preference shifts weigh heavily on the segment.
Automaker Performance: Winners and Losers
Automakers displayed varied performances in October, with market dynamics favoring some brands while challenging others. The Volkswagen Group emerged as the standout performer, recording a 16.7% increase in sales.
This growth boosted Volkswagen’s market share to 28.7%, up from 24.9% a year earlier. The group’s success underscores its strong lineup of hybrid and electric models, which have resonated with EU consumers.
Toyota also posted strong results, with a 17.4% increase in sales, reflecting its dominance in the hybrid vehicle segment. BMW recorded a 4.7% rise in sales, driven by demand for its premium models, while Mercedes-Benz saw a marginal decline of 1.0%.
However, other automakers faced challenges. Stellantis, the conglomerate behind brands like Peugeot and Fiat, reported a sharp 16.9% drop in sales for the second consecutive month, highlighting ongoing struggles with supply chain issues and shifting market dynamics. Renault Group also experienced a slight decline, with sales down 1.5%, reducing its market share to 10.9%.
Tesla, a key player in the electric vehicle market, saw a 21% plunge in EU sales in October, following a 31% increase the previous month.
The company’s market share dropped to 1.3%, down from 1.6% in October 2023. The decline comes amid intensifying competition in the EV segment and challenges in maintaining price competitiveness.
Year-to-Date Trends and Outlook
Between January and October 2024, the EU car market grew modestly, with registrations up 0.7% year-on-year to nearly 8.9 million units.
Spain led the growth, with a 4.9% increase in new registrations, while Italy saw a marginal rise of 0.9%. In contrast, France and Germany recorded declines of 2.7% and 0.4%, respectively.
Bulgaria once again stood out, with a 16.5% increase in registrations, reflecting its robust economic momentum and growing consumer demand for vehicles. The country’s growth highlights the potential of smaller EU markets to drive overall recovery in the region.
Looking ahead, the EU car market faces both opportunities and challenges. The transition to electric and hybrid vehicles is accelerating, driven by stringent emissions targets and shifting consumer preferences. However, high inflation, supply chain disruptions, and geopolitical uncertainties remain key risks.
Automakers are also navigating a complex regulatory landscape, with the EU pushing for stricter emissions standards and increased investments in sustainable mobility.
Companies that can adapt to these challenges while meeting consumer demand for affordable and efficient vehicles are likely to emerge as winners in the evolving market.
Conclusion
The October rebound in EU car sales offers a glimmer of hope for the automotive industry, which has been grappling with economic headwinds and shifting market dynamics.
While traditional segments like gasoline and diesel continue to decline, the growth of hybrids and EVs signals a promising shift toward sustainable mobility.
Bulgaria’s standout performance underscores the importance of regional dynamics within the EU market, highlighting opportunities for growth in smaller but rapidly developing markets.
As automakers adapt to new challenges and consumer preferences, the coming months will be critical in shaping the trajectory of the EU car market.