Bulgaria’s sunflower sector is grappling with substantial challenges this year, threatening to drive up prices for sunflower oil.
Despite a rise in total production, recent data from the Ministry of Agriculture indicates a concerning drop in yield, with only 55% of fields harvested as of September 5, 2024.
According to the Ministry, sunflower production has risen by 27.8% compared to last year, but the average yield per hectare has dropped sharply by 17.7%.
The current yield stands at a concerning 149 kg/ha, a decline from last year’s 181 kg/ha. These figures reflect the severe impact of Bulgaria’s harsh summer drought, which has left many farmers unable to meet expected outputs.
The lack of irrigation infrastructure has left farmers vulnerable to climate shifts. “Many had plans to invest in irrigation systems to cope with the dry conditions,” one farmer noted, “but these efforts were hampered by bureaucratic delays and funding shortages.”
The National Association of Grain Producers (NAGP) has sharply criticized the previous government, particularly former deputy minister Tanya Dabnishka-Georgieva, for failing to implement the “Investments related to effective water management in agricultural holdings” program.
With a budget of 99.7 million leva, the program was intended to support irrigation investments, but farmers say it failed to deliver the necessary aid.
Due to the weaker yield, Bulgaria’s sunflower production is expected to fall below 1.5 million tons this season, which is considerably lower than the processing capacity of over 4 million tons annually.
The reduced supply is already causing a gradual increase in sunflower prices. Data from the Ministry of Health reveals that as of September 4, 2024, sunflower prices have increased by 6.9% year-on-year, reaching an average purchase price of 822 leva per ton (excluding VAT), compared to 769 leva per ton a year ago.
Yani Yanev, chairman of the Association of Vegetable Oil Producers and Oilseed Processors in Bulgaria, stressed that the price of Bulgarian sunflower products is closely linked to global oil prices.
“If the international market prices rise, local sunflower oil prices will follow,” Yanev said. He also pointed out the difficulties in selling sunflower meal domestically, leading to lower prices, despite the fact that processors largely rely on Bulgarian sunflower crops.
Bulgaria’s import options for sunflowers are increasingly limited. Russia’s export tax on sunflower seeds and Ukraine’s strict licensing regime have made imports from these countries difficult.
Bulgaria’s primary sources of imported sunflower are Romania and Hungary. However, local supplies are further strained by what Yanev described as “shock exports,” where large quantities of Bulgarian sunflowers are being sent abroad to meet international demand.
Statistics from the National Statistical Institute (NSI) and the Ministry of Health show that during the September-May 2023/2024 period, Bulgaria exported significantly more sunflower products than in the previous harvest year.
Exports of sunflower oil surged by 475.6% to Hungary, with notable increases also recorded to Greece and the USA.
While Hungary and Romania provide some relief through imports, the situation is exacerbated by Bulgaria’s own export commitments, reducing the amount of sunflower available for domestic consumption.
As international demand remains high, experts predict that the pressure on Bulgaria’s sunflower oil market will continue to grow, with potential consequences for consumers and producers alike.